- The Peacemakers: Leadership Lessons from Twentieth-Century Statesmanship, with Bruce Jentleson
What are the qualities and conditions that enable people to become successful peacemakers? At a time when peace seems elusive and conflict endemic, Bruce Jentleson makes a forceful and inspiring case for the continued relevance of statesmanship and diplomacy and provides practical guidance to 21st-century leaders seeking lessons from some of history's most accomplished negotiators, activists, and trailblazers.
- On Grand Strategy, with John Lewis Gaddis
Are there such things as timeless principles of grand strategy? If so, are they always the same across epochs and cultures? What can we learn from reading the classics, such as Thucydides, Sun Tzu, and Clausewitz? "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing," according to Isaiah Berlin. Which type makes better strategists, or do you need to be a bit of both? John Lewis Gaddis has some wise and thoughtful answers.
- How to Deal With Xi's China? Engage, but Be Wary
"With the recent moves aimed at consolidating power within the presidency of Xi Jinping, a new era may be beginning in terms of how China both runs its internal politics and engages with the rest of the world," writes Carter Vance. How should the world respond?
- Top Risks and Ethical Decisions 2018 with Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer
Probably the most dangerous geopolitical environment in decades-China, AI, Trump, end of Pax Americana--yes, it's very bad. But all these challenges energize political scientist Ian Bremmer to do his best work! Don't miss this great talk.
- Trump's National Security Strategy, with Julianne Smith
"I would say most of the people I have talked to outside of government, including some people in Congress, have been a little taken aback," says Julie Smith, senior fellow at Center for a New American Security. "A lot of people have been left scratching their heads because a lot of what appears in the strategy has actually been contradicted by the president himself in one or another of his tweet storms."
- Banning Nuclear Weapons with 2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner ICAN
Did you know that 122 countries have adopted a treaty to ban nuclear weapons? The organization behind this movement is the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). In this spirited and informative discussion, Ray Acheson and Beatrice Fihn of ICAN take apart the nuclear deterrence myth, expecially in the case of North Korea, and the belief that nukes are "special" and therefore exempt from the ban on targeting civilians.
- From Charlottesville to North Korea: Filming Social Change with Josh Davis
In a wide-ranging conversation, Emmy award-winning Vice News producer Josh Davis takes Devin Stewart behind the scenes of his in-depth documentaries, from the deadly white nationalist rally in Charlottesville to daily life in North Korea.
- Trump, North Korea, China: War or Peace, with Gordon G. Chang
There is disturbing evidence that China is weaponizing North Korea, and it's time that Washington started asking Beijing some pointed questions, says Gordon Chang. The fact is, the United States has overwhelming leverage over China--we just don't use it enough--and China has overwhelming leverage over North Korea. "These two points lead to one conclusion, and that is, we can, without the use of force, disarm North Korea."
- Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? with Graham Allison
Thucydides is not saying that the inevitable frictions between a rising power and a ruling one will always lead to war, says Allison. The danger is when "third-party actions become provocations to which one or the other feels obliged to react, to which the other primary actor feels obliged to respond, which then leads to a cascade, often dragging people where they do not want to go." Think North Korea.
- North Korea: A Conversation between Joel Rosenthal and Devin Stewart
Carnegie Council President Joel Rosenthal and Senior Fellow Devin Stewart discuss the tense North Korea situation. What does Kim Jong-un want? How should the United States respond? What would the "enlightened realist" do?
- Podcast Series on Rising Tensions in Asia
Over the summer, Carnegie Council Senior Fellow and Asia Dialogues Director Devin Stewart continued his series of interviews with a wide range of experts on Asia. Topics covered include U.S.-Asia relations under President Trump, North Korea, the Trump effect in Japan, Islamic influence in Indonesian politics, avoiding war with China, and more.
- The Trump Effect in Japan with Robert Dujarric
"When you have a president like Trump, you do have to ask yourself: 'What will the United States look like in five years or in ten years?' A strong United States is what the government of Japan wants. In that sense, Trump is a threat. It is one that not all, but I feel a lot of Japanese analysts, are oblivious to. And second, what can they do? The answer is they can't do anything."
- Heidi Grant on U.S. Air Force Global Partnerships
George Washington understood that building capable partners during peacetime can actually prevent war, says Heidi Grant. She is deputy under secretary of the Air Force, International Affairs, an organization which works with over a hundred countries to address shared security challenges. This includes selling them military equipment and increasing their capability to conduct their own ISR: intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
- Stratfor's Rodger Baker on the Rebalancing of World Politics and Asia
"I think the biggest impact of Donald Trump's presidency, particularly in Asia-Pacific, has been the concept of uncertainty," says Baker, citing the lack of a clear and concise policy from the administration. "Uncertainty, if the United States were just a small peripheral country, is manageable; uncertainty when the United States is such a large and impactful country becomes very difficult to manage."
- Michele Wucker on when the Gray Rhino Hits Asia
Michele Wucker describes a gray rhino as the "love child of the black swan and the elephant in the room." In other words, "it's a metaphor for the big, obvious thing that's coming at you that you've got a choice to deal with or not." Why has this concept struck such a chord in China, Taiwan, and Korea, while Americans tend to be more in denial about their gray rhinos?
- George Friedman: The End of the International Order and the Future of Asia
Tired of conventional wisdom? Check out geopolitical forecaster George Friedman. The period that began at the end of World War II was a freak, he says. "We're returning to a more normal structure in which the nation-state is dominant, international trade is intense but managed by states for their own benefit, and where this idea that the nation-state is obsolete goes away." And find out why he's bullish on Japan and thinks we overestimate China.
- Graham Allison on "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?"
Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, explains Harvard's Graham Allison. So is war between China and the United States inevitable? No, says Allison, but both nations will have to make "painful adaptations and adjustments" to avoid it, starting with U.S. policy adjustments regarding the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.
- Isaac Stone Fish: Facts and Fiction on North Korea
Asia Society's Isaac Stone Fish is working on a novel set in Pyongyang, but he's also looking for the truth in the "world's most opaque country." Why does he think the North Koreans are acting rationally? What are the possible outcomes if tensions continue to rise between Kim and Trump?
- Mira Rapp-Hooper on "Subcontracting" U.S. Policy Toward Asia
The U.S. and China have fundamentally different priorities regarding the Korean Peninsula, explains Asia expert Rapp-Hooper. "So, by subcontracting North Korea policy to China," she says, "I think the United States is evincing some amount of naïveté on how far Beijing is likely to actually be willing to go."
- Conversation with Raymond Kuo: Can Trump be a Bismarck in Asia?
"This has happened before where we've had a great power who is essentially the leader of the international system taking a transactional approach. The closest example would be maybe Bismarck in the 1870s until the eve of World War I. There it worked quite well. . . . The drawbacks of this, of course, are that it is highly unstable."